Solana (SOL) is currently trading at a 4-month low. Over the past 24 hours, the price of SOL has dropped by 5%, continuing a sharp correction of up to 45% in the past 30 days.

This downward trend has pushed Solana’s market capitalization down to $70 billion. The current bearish momentum is clearly reflected in the Ichimoku Cloud indicator and the exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting a deeper decline in the near term.

Ichimoku Cloud confirms the strong bearish trend
Solana’s Ichimoku Cloud indicator shows a clear bearish trend. The SOL price is deep below the cloud, indicating strong bearish momentum. The red cloud ahead reflects bearish sentiment, with Leading Span A (green line) below Leading Span B (red line).

SOL/USDT 4-hour chart | Source: TradingView

This shows that the negative trend is dominant and is likely to continue. In addition, the Tenkan-sen line (blue) is also below the Kijun-sen line (red), further reinforcing the bearish pressure. The Chikou Span (the blue line behind) is also below the price action, confirming the negative sentiment in the market.

Despite a short accumulation period, the SOL price still failed to regain momentum and continued to weaken. Currently, the price is in a consolidation phase but has not yet broken out of the bearish structure.

To signal a reversal, the SOL price needs to break above the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, then break out of the cloud. However, as long as the price remains below these important levels, the bearish trend is still dominant.

Solana Whales Slightly Accumulate
The number of Solana whales – addresses holding at least 10,000 SOL – has been steadily decreasing over the past 30 days, hitting 5,017 on February 16, the lowest level since December 2024.

This suggests that large investors are selling, contributing to the downward trend reflected by the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. When whales reduce their holdings, selling pressure usually increases, reinforcing the negative momentum of the market.

This development is consistent with bearish signals from technical indicators.

Solana Whale Population | Source: Glassnode.

Monitoring the activity of whales is important, as they have a significant influence on price movements. Their purchases or sales can determine market trends, as they control a large amount of supply.

Recently, the number of Solana whales has shown signs of recovery, increasing to 5,067. While this is an improving signal, the figure is still lower than in recent months but still high compared to history.

This shows that accumulation is taking place, but not strong enough to change the bearish outlook reflected on the Ichimoku Cloud.

Will Solana hit a 6-month low?

The EMAs of SOL are showing a very negative setup, with the medium-term lines below the long-term lines and the gap between them widening significantly.

This reflects strong bearish momentum and suggests that selling pressure is still dominant. If this trend continues, SOL could test the important support level at $133. If this level is broken, the price could fall further to $120 or even $110, the lowest level since August 2024.

Biểu đồ SOL/USDT khung 4 giờ | Nguồn: TradingView

The wide gap between the EMAs further reinforces the strength of the downtrend, in line with the negative signal from the Ichimoku Cloud.

However, if there is a reversal, Solana could regain bullish momentum. At that point, SOL will need to test the important resistance level at $152. If this level is broken, the next target will be $171, and if it continues to break out, the price could rise to $180.

In addition, investors are also watching the impact of the $1.9 billion Solana unlock on March 1, which could significantly affect SOL's price movements.